Recent Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance and ensemble model runs have narrowed expectations for Seoul’s May 17 maximum to the 24–25 °C range, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities near 25–28 percent. Clear skies and light winds are supporting modest daytime warming under a weak high-pressure ridge, while modest southerly flow and any afternoon cloud buildup introduce the primary uncertainty between a 24 °C peak and a possible 26 °C reading. Mid-May climatology places typical highs in the low-to-mid 20s, and the tight clustering around these outcomes reflects high confidence in the current 48-hour model consensus ahead of the next KMA forecast update.