Recent European forecast models from Météo-France and the ECMWF ensemble show Paris overnight lows clustering near 9–11°C on May 19, driven by a lingering cool maritime air mass and variable cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Light northerly winds and scattered showers further suppress minimum readings below the May climatological average of 9–10°C at Paris-Le Bourget, the resolution station. Trader consensus across the tightly bunched 8–11°C buckets reflects genuine ensemble uncertainty, with clearer skies potentially allowing 8°C and thicker clouds or stronger mixing keeping readings at 10–11°C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.