Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のパリの最低気温は？
5月18日のパリの最低気温は？
12℃以上 41%
10°C 26%
8°C 21%
7°C 20%
新規
新規
2026/05/18
2°C以下
1%
3℃
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
3%
7°C
20%
8°C
21%
9°C
25%
10°C
26%
11℃
9%
12℃以上
41%
12℃以上 41%
10°C 26%
8°C 21%
7°C 20%
新規
新規
2026/05/18
2°C以下
$52 Vol.
1%
3℃
$47 Vol.
1%
4°C
$0 Vol.
3%
5°C
$0 Vol.
3%
6°C
$0 Vol.
3%
7°C
$0 Vol.
20%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$19 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11℃
$0 Vol.
9%
12℃以上
$78 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$196終了日
2026/05/18マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$196終了日
2026/05/18マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETMarket-implied odds for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18 remain tightly clustered around 25% across 2–12°C outcomes, reflecting substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF amid a variable spring pattern over western Europe. Recent 48-hour model runs show means near 6–8°C but wide spreads driven by differing scenarios for nocturnal radiative cooling under potential clear skies versus persistent cloud cover from a lingering weak trough, with calm winds favoring lower readings and the city's urban heat island mitigating extremes below 4°C. Historical mid-May lows average 9–10°C per Météo-France data, though recent cool anomalies post-La Niña transition have traders hedging cooler risks. Key updates from ECMWF 12Z runs and Météo-France bulletins will clarify steering patterns before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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