Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–16°C outcomes at 19–20.5% implied probabilities, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a 15°C high for Amsterdam on May 17 amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southerly winds at force 3. This follows a cool spell over the past week, with northwesterly flows capping recent maxima at 12–13°C, but a subtle shift to zonal flow introduces mild instability, limiting peak heating via cloud cover and precipitation. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show spread in this range due to uncertainties in shower timing and solar insolation, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 16°C highs. New model runs from KNMI and global centers tomorrow could sharpen differentiation among these closely matched bins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のアムステルダムの最高気温は?
5月17日のアムステルダムの最高気温は?
15°C 34%
14°C 21%
16°C 20.2%
13°C 16%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
18%
14°C
21%
15°C
34%
16°C
20%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
14°C 21%
16°C 20.2%
13°C 16%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
18%
14°C
21%
15°C
34%
16°C
20%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–16°C outcomes at 19–20.5% implied probabilities, driven by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'s latest forecast of a 15°C high for Amsterdam on May 17 amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southerly winds at force 3. This follows a cool spell over the past week, with northwesterly flows capping recent maxima at 12–13°C, but a subtle shift to zonal flow introduces mild instability, limiting peak heating via cloud cover and precipitation. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models show spread in this range due to uncertainties in shower timing and solar insolation, consistent with mid-May climatology averaging 16°C highs. New model runs from KNMI and global centers tomorrow could sharpen differentiation among these closely matched bins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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