Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のメキシコシティの最高気温は?
5月17日のメキシコシティの最高気温は?
26°C or higher 91%
25°C 8%
24°C 5.4%
22°C <1%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
91%
26°C or higher 91%
25°C 8%
24°C 5.4%
22°C <1%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
91%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to a high of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on May 17, driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecast issued May 14, which confirms an ongoing heat wave across central Mexico with expected highs of 27-29°C through May 15 and similar conditions persisting. Global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, reflected in extended outlooks, project peaks around 27-28°C amid upper-level ridging promoting subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Recent days logged above-average temperatures near 28°C, elevating sentiment for warmth, though incoming moisture risks afternoon showers that could cap peaks near 25°C (19.5% odds). Updated SMN guidance and new model runs expected May 15 may refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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