Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature around 14-15°C in Warsaw on May 17, with 51.5% odds for 15°C or higher leading due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing model means near 15°C amid a cool northerly airflow over Central Europe. This positions 13°C and 14°C outcomes at 21% each, reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover that could cap daytime heating. Slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C, current conditions stem from a blocking high over Scandinavia funneling cooler Arctic air, per recent upper-air analyses. Inherent 2-day forecast uncertainty (±2-3°C) persists; watch IMGW and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for potential shifts ahead of the event window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
5月17日のワルシャワの最高気温は?
13°C 35%
12°C 28.9%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 11%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
10%
12°C
29%
13°C
35%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
11%
13°C 35%
12°C 28.9%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 11%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
10%
12°C
29%
13°C
35%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature around 14-15°C in Warsaw on May 17, with 51.5% odds for 15°C or higher leading due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing model means near 15°C amid a cool northerly airflow over Central Europe. This positions 13°C and 14°C outcomes at 21% each, reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover that could cap daytime heating. Slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C, current conditions stem from a blocking high over Scandinavia funneling cooler Arctic air, per recent upper-air analyses. Inherent 2-day forecast uncertainty (±2-3°C) persists; watch IMGW and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for potential shifts ahead of the event window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問