Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のマドリードの最高気温は?
5月17日のマドリードの最高気温は?
21°C 33%
22°C 30%
23°C 26%
24°C 14%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C
33%
22°C
30%
23°C
26%
24°C
14%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 33%
22°C 30%
23°C 26%
24°C 14%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C
33%
22°C
30%
23°C
26%
24°C
14%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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