Recent numerical weather prediction models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate Ankara will experience a transitional spring pattern on May 17, with northerly flow and partial cloud cover capping peak heating near 19–20°C at the official Esenboğa station. This consensus explains the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes, as modest differences in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon insolation, and localized upslope effects on the Anatolian plateau can easily shift the daily maximum by one degree. Historical mid-May climatology places average highs at 21–22°C, so any unexpected clearing or reduced winds would favor the 20°C bin while persistent stratiform clouds would reinforce 19°C. Traders are monitoring the final 12–18 hour model updates and surface observations for confirmation before resolution.