Recent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?
30°C 38%
31°C 35%
29°C 15.0%
32°C 8%
新規
$24,179 Vol.
新規
$24,179 Vol.
2026/07/05
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
15%
30°C
38%
31°C
35%
32°C
8%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 38%
31°C 35%
29°C 15.0%
32°C 8%
新規
$24,179 Vol.
新規
$24,179 Vol.
2026/07/05
26°C or below
$781 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,179 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,326 Vol.
3%
29°C
$2,349 Vol.
15%
30°C
$3,973 Vol.
38%
31°C
$7,338 Vol.
35%
32°C
$1,823 Vol.
8%
33°C
$1,631 Vol.
1%
34°C
$831 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,593 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,355 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
音量
$24,179終了日
2026/07/05マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$24,179終了日
2026/07/05マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ETRecent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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