Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 6?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 6?
22°C 34%
21°C 19%
23°C 14%
20°C 7%
新規
新規
2026/07/06
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
7%
21°C
19%
22°C
34%
23°C
14%
24°C
5%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 34%
21°C 19%
23°C 14%
20°C 7%
新規
新規
2026/07/06
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$16 Vol.
7%
21°C
$10 Vol.
19%
22°C
$45 Vol.
34%
23°C
$17 Vol.
14%
24°C
$20 Vol.
5%
25°C
$10 Vol.
4%
26°C
$20 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
音量
$158終了日
2026/07/06マーケット開始日
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$158終了日
2026/07/06マーケット開始日
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETRecent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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