Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月16日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
7月16日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
29°C 49%
30°C 34%
28°C 14%
31°C 3.6%
新規
新規
2026/07/16
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
14%
29°C
49%
30°C
34%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 49%
30°C 34%
28°C 14%
31°C 3.6%
新規
新規
2026/07/16
24°C or below
$502 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$538 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$526 Vol.
1%
27°C
$386 Vol.
3%
28°C
$628 Vol.
14%
29°C
$1,350 Vol.
49%
30°C
$1,195 Vol.
34%
31°C
$446 Vol.
4%
32°C
$598 Vol.
1%
33°C
$558 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$311 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$7,039終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$7,039終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETCurrent numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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