Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a weakening high-pressure system over northwest Europe will likely deliver peak temperatures of 28–29°C in London on July 15, with limited further warming expected amid increasing cloud and possible scattered showers. These conditions follow an early-July heatwave that produced 35°C readings but has since moderated under shifting Atlantic flow. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, keeping 28°C and 29°C closely matched in trader-implied probabilities while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher thresholds. Updated short-range runs and Met Office briefings through July 14 will refine the final maximum before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月15日のロンドンの最高気温は?
28°C 39%
29°C 35%
27°C 18%
30°C 9%
$16,319 Vol.
$16,319 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
18%
28°C
39%
29°C
35%
30°C
9%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 39%
29°C 35%
27°C 18%
30°C 9%
$16,319 Vol.
$16,319 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
18%
28°C
39%
29°C
35%
30°C
9%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a weakening high-pressure system over northwest Europe will likely deliver peak temperatures of 28–29°C in London on July 15, with limited further warming expected amid increasing cloud and possible scattered showers. These conditions follow an early-July heatwave that produced 35°C readings but has since moderated under shifting Atlantic flow. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, keeping 28°C and 29°C closely matched in trader-implied probabilities while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher thresholds. Updated short-range runs and Met Office briefings through July 14 will refine the final maximum before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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