Recent Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures, paired with ensemble model consensus from JMA and global systems, anchors trader focus on 32–33 °C outcomes for Tokyo’s July 14 maximum. Subtropical high pressure promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, while the urban heat island effect from concrete surfaces and limited ventilation amplifies daytime peaks; sea-breeze timing and any residual cloud cover introduce the narrow spread seen across 31–34 °C probabilities. Short-range forecast updates over the next 48 hours will refine these variables before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月14日の東京の最高気温は?
33°C 44.3%
32°C 36.7%
34°C 15.3%
31°C 8.8%
$49,772 Vol.
$49,772 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
9%
32°C
37%
33°C
44%
34°C
15%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 44.3%
32°C 36.7%
34°C 15.3%
31°C 8.8%
$49,772 Vol.
$49,772 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
9%
32°C
37%
33°C
44%
34°C
15%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures, paired with ensemble model consensus from JMA and global systems, anchors trader focus on 32–33 °C outcomes for Tokyo’s July 14 maximum. Subtropical high pressure promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, while the urban heat island effect from concrete surfaces and limited ventilation amplifies daytime peaks; sea-breeze timing and any residual cloud cover introduce the narrow spread seen across 31–34 °C probabilities. Short-range forecast updates over the next 48 hours will refine these variables before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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