Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models point to a minimum near 20–21°C in Paris on July 16 amid lingering warm advection and elevated dew points from the July heatwave, keeping overnight lows well above the historical early-July average of 15–16°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on expected cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or sustain the urban heat island effect by 1–2°C. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed trends in 2-meter temperatures, producing closely bunched implied probabilities that reflect genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月16日のパリの最低気温は？
7月16日のパリの最低気温は？
20°C 33%
19℃ 26%
21℃ 18%
18°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/07/16
17°C以下
4%
18°C
11%
19℃
26%
20°C
33%
21℃
18%
22℃
6%
23°C
<1%
24℃
<1%
25℃
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃以上
<1%
20°C 33%
19℃ 26%
21℃ 18%
18°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/07/16
17°C以下
$71 Vol.
4%
18°C
$59 Vol.
11%
19℃
$1,820 Vol.
26%
20°C
$257 Vol.
33%
21℃
$360 Vol.
18%
22℃
$49 Vol.
6%
23°C
$365 Vol.
<1%
24℃
$99 Vol.
<1%
25℃
$183 Vol.
<1%
26℃
$455 Vol.
<1%
27℃以上
$333 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models point to a minimum near 20–21°C in Paris on July 16 amid lingering warm advection and elevated dew points from the July heatwave, keeping overnight lows well above the historical early-July average of 15–16°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on expected cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or sustain the urban heat island effect by 1–2°C. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed trends in 2-meter temperatures, producing closely bunched implied probabilities that reflect genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$4,050終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models point to a minimum near 20–21°C in Paris on July 16 amid lingering warm advection and elevated dew points from the July heatwave, keeping overnight lows well above the historical early-July average of 15–16°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on expected cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or sustain the urban heat island effect by 1–2°C. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed trends in 2-meter temperatures, producing closely bunched implied probabilities that reflect genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$4,050終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models point to a minimum near 20–21°C in Paris on July 16 amid lingering warm advection and elevated dew points from the July heatwave, keeping overnight lows well above the historical early-July average of 15–16°C. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on expected cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or sustain the urban heat island effect by 1–2°C. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observed trends in 2-meter temperatures, producing closely bunched implied probabilities that reflect genuine forecast uncertainty rather than a single dominant scenario.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問