Sustained increases in ICE arrests and detention capacity, alongside expanded deportation flights and third-country removal agreements, have supported higher removal volumes in 2026, yet trader consensus centers on the 400-500k range due to persistent logistical limits including available flights, receiving-country capacity, and processing backlogs. Recent summer 2026 arrest surges have not proportionally boosted deportations, as a growing share of those detained lack final removal orders or criminal convictions, while a federal appeals court ruling in mid-September restricted third-country transfers. Self-deportation initiatives and voluntary departures have supplemented official counts, and historically low border encounters have shifted focus inward, but these factors have not pushed totals beyond the current leading bracket according to market pricing. Upcoming fiscal year-end data and any policy adjustments before December could still influence final 2026 figures.