The precarious status of the US-Israel-Iran truce, marked by recent tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian conditions for reopening shipping lanes, and Israeli security cabinet orders to prepare for possible strikes, forms the main driver of trader positioning. Netanyahu, operating as caretaker prime minister after his bloc fell short of a majority in the late October Knesset elections, has publicly called for removing the Iranian threat “once and for all” and dispatched the Mossad director to Washington for talks, while coalition negotiations with Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc continue and a speaker replacement vote looms on November 17. These developments sustain uncertainty over whether violations or renewed exchanges will end the current fragile pause before a new government is sworn in, consistent with the 58 percent implied probability on an early breakdown.