Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami indicates typical mid-summer conditions with overnight lows centered near the July climatological average of 78–80°F, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F. Primary drivers include persistent high humidity limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, light southeasterly winds off the warm Atlantic, and variable cloud cover or scattered showers that can trap heat or enhance mixing. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread tied to uncertainty in timing and coverage of convective activity on July 2–3, which can shift minimum readings by 2–4°F depending on whether skies clear after midnight. Historical analogs confirm that deviations below 76°F or above 82°F are uncommon without unusual synoptic patterns.