**Forecast models from multiple sources indicate the daily minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 2, 2026, will most likely fall between 24–26°C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C (31.5%) and 25°C (49.5%).** Current short-range guidance from agencies and meteorological services shows overnight lows near 24–26°C (75–79°F) under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, with light southerly or variable winds and high humidity (often 70–90%) that limits radiative cooling. Daytime highs are projected around 30–32°C, consistent with late-summer conditions transitioning into early September. The slight edge for 25°C over 24°C in trader-implied odds reflects consensus around typical urban overnight readings, tempered by minor model spread on exact cloud cover and any scattered showers. Historical September minima in Tokyo average lower (near 19–23°C), but persistent warm air masses and the urban heat island effect are supporting elevated values this period. No significant frontal systems or typhoon influences are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, keeping the distribution concentrated in the 24–26°C range. Updated model runs or official Japan Meteorological Agency observations on the morning of September 2 will provide the clearest near-term signals for any shifts in these probabilities.