OpenAI’s chief financial officer has publicly flagged the company’s fourth-quarter 2026 IPO target as too aggressive, citing the need for additional organizational and procedural work ahead of a public listing, while CEO Sam Altman continues to favor an earlier debut. Recent reporting highlights mounting cash burn—projected at $14 billion this year alone—alongside missed internal revenue and user-growth targets that have prompted analysts at PitchBook to shift their base case to mid-to-late 2027. These headwinds, combined with ongoing legal friction and the absence of any SEC filing, have driven trader consensus toward the 67.5% probability of no IPO by year-end 2026. The market is also watching competitive positioning against Anthropic and the company’s ability to sustain its large-language-model development pipeline without further dilution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年12月31日までにIPOなし 68%
1.5兆ドル以上 9.9%
1.25兆～1.5兆 3.7%
5,000〜7,500億ドル 3.5%
$1,638,863 Vol.
$1,638,863 Vol.
2026/06/30
5,000億ドル未満
1%
5,000〜7,500億ドル
3%
7,500億〜1兆
2%
1兆〜1.25兆ドル
3%
1.25兆～1.5兆
4%
1.5兆ドル以上
10%
2026年12月31日までにIPOなし
68%
2026年12月31日までにIPOなし 68%
1.5兆ドル以上 9.9%
1.25兆～1.5兆 3.7%
5,000〜7,500億ドル 3.5%
$1,638,863 Vol.
$1,638,863 Vol.
2026/06/30
5,000億ドル未満
$266,170 Vol.
1%
5,000〜7,500億ドル
$146,331 Vol.
3%
7,500億〜1兆
$141,042 Vol.
2%
1兆〜1.25兆ドル
$182,625 Vol.
3%
1.25兆～1.5兆
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1.5兆ドル以上
$101,032 Vol.
10%
2026年12月31日までにIPOなし
$305,147 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s chief financial officer has publicly flagged the company’s fourth-quarter 2026 IPO target as too aggressive, citing the need for additional organizational and procedural work ahead of a public listing, while CEO Sam Altman continues to favor an earlier debut. Recent reporting highlights mounting cash burn—projected at $14 billion this year alone—alongside missed internal revenue and user-growth targets that have prompted analysts at PitchBook to shift their base case to mid-to-late 2027. These headwinds, combined with ongoing legal friction and the absence of any SEC filing, have driven trader consensus toward the 67.5% probability of no IPO by year-end 2026. The market is also watching competitive positioning against Anthropic and the company’s ability to sustain its large-language-model development pipeline without further dilution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
音量
$1,638,863終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s chief financial officer has publicly flagged the company’s fourth-quarter 2026 IPO target as too aggressive, citing the need for additional organizational and procedural work ahead of a public listing, while CEO Sam Altman continues to favor an earlier debut. Recent reporting highlights mounting cash burn—projected at $14 billion this year alone—alongside missed internal revenue and user-growth targets that have prompted analysts at PitchBook to shift their base case to mid-to-late 2027. These headwinds, combined with ongoing legal friction and the absence of any SEC filing, have driven trader consensus toward the 67.5% probability of no IPO by year-end 2026. The market is also watching competitive positioning against Anthropic and the company’s ability to sustain its large-language-model development pipeline without further dilution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,638,863終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s chief financial officer has publicly flagged the company’s fourth-quarter 2026 IPO target as too aggressive, citing the need for additional organizational and procedural work ahead of a public listing, while CEO Sam Altman continues to favor an earlier debut. Recent reporting highlights mounting cash burn—projected at $14 billion this year alone—alongside missed internal revenue and user-growth targets that have prompted analysts at PitchBook to shift their base case to mid-to-late 2027. These headwinds, combined with ongoing legal friction and the absence of any SEC filing, have driven trader consensus toward the 67.5% probability of no IPO by year-end 2026. The market is also watching competitive positioning against Anthropic and the company’s ability to sustain its large-language-model development pipeline without further dilution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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