The SARB’s May 28 decision to hike the repo rate 25 basis points to 7 percent—its first increase since 2023—following April CPI jumping to 4.0 percent from 3.1 percent, has established a further 25 basis point move as the market’s leading July 23 outcome at 70.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical pressures tied to Middle East tensions lifted fuel inflation sharply and prompted the central bank to raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4 percent while highlighting upside risks and potential second-round effects. The June 17 CPI print and any rand volatility ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors, yet trader positioning continues to price modest additional tightening to steer expectations back toward the 3 percent target midpoint, with deeper hikes or cuts commanding lower consensus odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日50+ bps hike 84%
25 bps hike 66%
No Change 29%
50+ bps cut 23%
新規
新規
2026/07/23
50+ bps cut
23%
25 bps cut
5%
No Change
29%
25 bps hike
64%
50+ bps hike
84%
50+ bps hike 84%
25 bps hike 66%
No Change 29%
50+ bps cut 23%
新規
新規
2026/07/23
50+ bps cut
$43 Vol.
23%
25 bps cut
$191 Vol.
5%
No Change
$686 Vol.
29%
25 bps hike
$658 Vol.
64%
50+ bps hike
$73 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The SARB’s May 28 decision to hike the repo rate 25 basis points to 7 percent—its first increase since 2023—following April CPI jumping to 4.0 percent from 3.1 percent, has established a further 25 basis point move as the market’s leading July 23 outcome at 70.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical pressures tied to Middle East tensions lifted fuel inflation sharply and prompted the central bank to raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4 percent while highlighting upside risks and potential second-round effects. The June 17 CPI print and any rand volatility ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors, yet trader positioning continues to price modest additional tightening to steer expectations back toward the 3 percent target midpoint, with deeper hikes or cuts commanding lower consensus odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$1,651終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The SARB’s May 28 decision to hike the repo rate 25 basis points to 7 percent—its first increase since 2023—following April CPI jumping to 4.0 percent from 3.1 percent, has established a further 25 basis point move as the market’s leading July 23 outcome at 70.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical pressures tied to Middle East tensions lifted fuel inflation sharply and prompted the central bank to raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4 percent while highlighting upside risks and potential second-round effects. The June 17 CPI print and any rand volatility ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors, yet trader positioning continues to price modest additional tightening to steer expectations back toward the 3 percent target midpoint, with deeper hikes or cuts commanding lower consensus odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$1,651終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The SARB’s May 28 decision to hike the repo rate 25 basis points to 7 percent—its first increase since 2023—following April CPI jumping to 4.0 percent from 3.1 percent, has established a further 25 basis point move as the market’s leading July 23 outcome at 70.5 percent implied probability. Geopolitical pressures tied to Middle East tensions lifted fuel inflation sharply and prompted the central bank to raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4 percent while highlighting upside risks and potential second-round effects. The June 17 CPI print and any rand volatility ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors, yet trader positioning continues to price modest additional tightening to steer expectations back toward the 3 percent target midpoint, with deeper hikes or cuts commanding lower consensus odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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