Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee (87%) over veteran Rep. Al Green (11%), driven by his sustained polling lead in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School survey released May 12 showed Menefee ahead 50%-43% among likely voters, widening from his February 24-point edge and following a close March 3 primary where both incumbents advanced—no candidate exceeded 50%. Menefee, sworn in after winning a 2026 special election to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, benefits from generational appeal against Green's long tenure. A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights but contrasts in experience and early vote attendance. With the May 26 runoff imminent and early voting underway, the solidly Democratic district's winner secures the general election nomination; minor candidates like Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards hold no viable path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日クリスチャン・メネフィー 88.1%
アル・グリーン 10.7%
グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%
$27,812 Vol.
$27,812 Vol.
クリスチャン・メネフィー
88%
アル・グリーン
11%
グレッチェン・ブラウン
<1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ
<1%
クリスチャン・メネフィー 88.1%
アル・グリーン 10.7%
グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%
$27,812 Vol.
$27,812 Vol.
クリスチャン・メネフィー
88%
アル・グリーン
11%
グレッチェン・ブラウン
<1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee (87%) over veteran Rep. Al Green (11%), driven by his sustained polling lead in the redrawn Houston-area district. A University of Houston Hobby School survey released May 12 showed Menefee ahead 50%-43% among likely voters, widening from his February 24-point edge and following a close March 3 primary where both incumbents advanced—no candidate exceeded 50%. Menefee, sworn in after winning a 2026 special election to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, benefits from generational appeal against Green's long tenure. A May 4 debate highlighted alignments on voting rights but contrasts in experience and early vote attendance. With the May 26 runoff imminent and early voting underway, the solidly Democratic district's winner secures the general election nomination; minor candidates like Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards hold no viable path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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