U.S. policy has consistently limited American military involvement in Gaza to coordination and support roles based in Israel, with officials repeatedly stating that no U.S. troops will operate inside the enclave itself. Recent developments, including stalled progress on the International Stabilization Force under the Trump administration's Board of Peace plan, Israeli rejection of key elements in August 2026, and the closure of a U.S.-led coordination center earlier in the year, have reinforced expectations that deployment timelines will slip or remain limited to non-U.S. contributors. These factors align with the trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
12% 確率
$185,800 Vol.
$185,800 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
12% 確率
$185,800 Vol.
$185,800 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. policy has consistently limited American military involvement in Gaza to coordination and support roles based in Israel, with officials repeatedly stating that no U.S. troops will operate inside the enclave itself. Recent developments, including stalled progress on the International Stabilization Force under the Trump administration's Board of Peace plan, Israeli rejection of key elements in August 2026, and the closure of a U.S.-led coordination center earlier in the year, have reinforced expectations that deployment timelines will slip or remain limited to non-U.S. contributors. These factors align with the trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ET
音量
$185,800終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. policy has consistently limited American military involvement in Gaza to coordination and support roles based in Israel, with officials repeatedly stating that no U.S. troops will operate inside the enclave itself. Recent developments, including stalled progress on the International Stabilization Force under the Trump administration's Board of Peace plan, Israeli rejection of key elements in August 2026, and the closure of a U.S.-led coordination center earlier in the year, have reinforced expectations that deployment timelines will slip or remain limited to non-U.S. contributors. These factors align with the trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$185,800終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy has consistently limited American military involvement in Gaza to coordination and support roles based in Israel, with officials repeatedly stating that no U.S. troops will operate inside the enclave itself. Recent developments, including stalled progress on the International Stabilization Force under the Trump administration's Board of Peace plan, Israeli rejection of key elements in August 2026, and the closure of a U.S.-led coordination center earlier in the year, have reinforced expectations that deployment timelines will slip or remain limited to non-U.S. contributors. These factors align with the trader consensus reflected in the 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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