Trader consensus reflects Apple's 18-year history of annual flagship iPhone launches without skips, bolstered by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max entering trial production for a September 2026 debut. Analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight progress on the 2nm A20 chip and features such as variable aperture cameras, with MacRumors noting a split rollout—Pro models in fall 2026 alongside a potential iPhone Fold, while base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns with typical September event timing, driving the 94.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Realistic challenges include TSMC yield issues on advanced nodes, global supply disruptions, or strategic delays amid foldable competition, though no such hurdles have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$96,027 Vol.
$96,027 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$96,027 Vol.
$96,027 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects Apple's 18-year history of annual flagship iPhone launches without skips, bolstered by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max entering trial production for a September 2026 debut. Analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight progress on the 2nm A20 chip and features such as variable aperture cameras, with MacRumors noting a split rollout—Pro models in fall 2026 alongside a potential iPhone Fold, while base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns with typical September event timing, driving the 94.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Realistic challenges include TSMC yield issues on advanced nodes, global supply disruptions, or strategic delays amid foldable competition, though no such hurdles have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$96,027終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects Apple's 18-year history of annual flagship iPhone launches without skips, bolstered by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max entering trial production for a September 2026 debut. Analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight progress on the 2nm A20 chip and features such as variable aperture cameras, with MacRumors noting a split rollout—Pro models in fall 2026 alongside a potential iPhone Fold, while base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns with typical September event timing, driving the 94.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Realistic challenges include TSMC yield issues on advanced nodes, global supply disruptions, or strategic delays amid foldable competition, though no such hurdles have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$96,027終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects Apple's 18-year history of annual flagship iPhone launches without skips, bolstered by recent supply chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max entering trial production for a September 2026 debut. Analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo highlight progress on the 2nm A20 chip and features such as variable aperture cameras, with MacRumors noting a split rollout—Pro models in fall 2026 alongside a potential iPhone Fold, while base iPhone 18 may slip to spring 2027. This aligns with typical September event timing, driving the 94.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Realistic challenges include TSMC yield issues on advanced nodes, global supply disruptions, or strategic delays amid foldable competition, though no such hurdles have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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