**Trader consensus reflects the structural barrier of Article II eligibility combined with Musk’s recent political activity showing no personal candidacy intent.** Musk, born in South Africa and naturalized in 2002, is not a natural-born U.S. citizen, rendering him constitutionally ineligible for the presidency regardless of any announcement. Recent developments include his 2025 formation and quick retreat from the America Party amid a Trump rift, followed by renewed support for Republican midterm candidates through America PAC without any signals of a White House bid. Musk has instead focused on business milestones, such as the October 2026 Tesla Roadster reveal, and foreign endorsements like Marine Le Pen. With the 2026 calendar advancing and no polling, filings, or public statements indicating a run, the implied 98.3% probability for “No” aligns with the absence of viable pathways before year-end. A late reversal would require an unprecedented shift in Musk’s priorities or a successful constitutional challenge, both viewed as remote by traders.