France’s fragmented National Assembly and the Lecornu government’s €54 billion spending-cut plan to narrow the 2027 deficit from a projected 5.4% of GDP have left passage by year-end in doubt, supporting the 64% market-implied odds against approval. With no stable majority, the executive must secure either Socialist or Rassemblement National tolerance to avoid censure motions, yet the PS has signaled opposition while the RN weighs conditional restraint ahead of the presidential campaign. Prior delays that forced 49.3 decrees and a special law for the 2026 budget underscore the procedural risks, and the compressed autumn calendar—PLF deposit by late September and constitutional deadlines by early December—offers limited room for compromise amid rising debt above 120% of GDP. Key near-term catalysts include the October parliamentary debates and any shifts in RN or PS positioning.