Traders assign modest probability to Hamas formally agreeing to disarm by late 2026 because core disputes over sequencing and verification remain unresolved despite a July 2026 announcement by the U.S.-led Board of Peace. President Trump described the framework as a phased deal under which Hamas and other groups would surrender weapons in stages in exchange for gradual Israeli withdrawal, governance by a technocratic Palestinian body, and an international stabilization force. Hamas quickly conditioned any implementation on prior Israeli fulfillment of the October 2025 Sharm el-Sheikh ceasefire terms, including halted strikes, increased aid flows, and force pullbacks. Israeli officials countered with security concerns, insisting on complete, verified demilitarization—including tunnels and production sites—before any territorial concessions. Ongoing Cairo talks have repeatedly stalled over these reciprocal demands, leaving the second phase of the ceasefire fragile and subject to renewed escalation risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Israeli strike kills Hamas military wing commander in Gaza
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
An Israeli airstrike killed Adel Jihad Mohammad Asfour, a platoon commander in Hamas’s military wing, signaling ongoing conflict and weakening Hamas's military leadership. This event underscored the continued hostilities and lack of progress on disarmament, contributing to the market's low confidence in Hamas disarming by the end of 2026.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, killing Hamas fighters
December 31, 2026 plunges to 14%21%
Despite the ceasefire agreement, Israel continued military strikes in Gaza, killing several Hamas fighters on July 1. These ongoing hostilities and Israel's refusal to fully withdraw have stalled peace plan progress and disarmament talks, reducing market confidence that Hamas will officially disarm by the end of 2025.
Hamas expresses hope for international force arrival and ceasefire implementation
Hamas expressed hope that the arrival of the first International Force vehicles near Gaza would mark the beginning of implementation of their mission, including separating Palestinians from the Israeli army.
Hamas leader rejects disarmament or foreign rule in Gaza
December 31, 2026 plunges to 36%15%
Hamas leader Khaled Meshal publicly reaffirmed the group's refusal to disarm or accept foreign intervention, emphasizing resistance as a right under occupation. This statement coincided with a sharp drop in market confidence for disarmament by December 31, 2026, from 51% to 36%.
Board of Peace conditions Gaza administration handover on Hamas disarmament
The Board of Peace stated that the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza would only enter Gaza if Hamas agreed to disarm, while Hamas demanded Israel cease ceasefire violations first, maintaining the deadlock and depressing market prices.
Mediators propose modified phased Hamas disarmament plan
December 31, 2026 dips to 1%3%
A new proposal was drawn up by mediators for a phased Hamas disarmament plan, requiring weapons collection, inventory, and storage in timetabled stages, including disarming Israeli-backed militias in Gaza.
Mediators propose phased Hamas disarmament plan amid stalled talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 51%3%
On June 30, mediators presented a phased disarmament plan requiring Hamas to collect, inventory, and store weapons in stages, addressing Hamas's objections by including Israeli-backed militias. However, Hamas was counseled not to concede, fearing internal strife, and disarmament remained conditional on Israeli actions. This news initially raised market optimism but ultimately highlighted the complexity and resistance to disarmament.
Mediators Propose Phased Disarmament Plan to Revive Peace Process
In a bid to revive the stalled peace plan, mediators proposed a phased disarmament schedule, but intelligence assessments confirmed Hamas has no intention of actually disarming.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows continued military presence in Gaza and surrounding areas
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu's statement that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria 'as long as required' signaled ongoing conflict and security concerns, reducing the likelihood of Hamas disarming by the June 30, 2026 deadline and depressing market prices.
Palestinians in Gaza protest against Hamas amid stalled disarmament talks
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
Public protests against Hamas in Gaza reflected growing dissatisfaction with Hamas's governance and the stalled disarmament process, further diminishing market optimism about Hamas agreeing to disarm by the end of 2026.
Hamas Launches Brutal Crackdown to Suppress June 26 Protests
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Hamas deployed armed guards, police, and militias to crush planned anti-Hamas protests across Gaza, where organizers had called on the group to disarm and cede power.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered peace agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the US was signed, but Hezbollah's rejection and warnings of civil war indicated ongoing instability and resistance to disarmament, contributing to market skepticism about Hamas disarming by June 30, 2026.
Hamas says delegation headed to Cairo for cease‑fire talks, no disarmament pledge
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%5%
Hamas announced that its delegation was en route to Cairo for talks focused on cease‑fire violations and reconstruction, but did not mention any intention to relinquish its weapons. The lack of a disarmament announcement kept the market’s “Yes” odds low, coinciding with the price sinking to the single‑digit range for the June‑30 outcome.
Gazans plan large anti-Hamas protest amid stagnation and disarmament deadlock
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Palestinians in Gaza organized a significant protest against Hamas's governance amid ongoing hardships and stalled peace efforts. The protest highlighted internal dissent but did not translate into Hamas disarming, reinforcing market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
IDF reports 17 cease‑fire violations and destroys four Hamas rocket sites
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%5%
The IDF reported 17 cease‑fire violations and the destruction of four Hamas rocket‑launch positions, underscoring that Hamas remained armed and operational. This reinforced market sentiment that a formal disarmament announcement was unlikely, driving the “Yes” price for the June‑30 outcome down to 1 %.
Board of Peace Demands Complete Disarmament of Hamas
Ceasefire talks faced a severe test after the High Representative of the Board of Peace demanded that Gaza be completely free of any weapons, down to a single bullet.
Ceasefire talks face deadlock over Hamas disarmament demands
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%1%
On June 23, ceasefire negotiations in Egypt faced serious challenges as the Board of Peace demanded complete disarmament of Hamas and allied groups, which Hamas rejected, stating disarmament would only occur with a fully integrated Palestinian state. This hardened stance contributed to the stalemate and market pessimism about disarmament.
Hamas hardens stance on disarmament in talks with US adviser
December 31, 2026 drops to 19%11%
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya took a tougher line on disarmament during negotiations with a senior Trump administration official, signaling rejection of key parts of the peace plan and reducing market confidence in disarmament by year-end.
Gaza mediators resume disarmament talks with Hamas amid impasse
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Mediators in Egypt resumed talks with Hamas to unblock the disarmament deadlock, but Hamas insisted no final disarmament decision could be made before new leadership elections concluded. The ongoing stalemate kept market prices near historic lows, reflecting little expectation of imminent disarmament.
Hamas refuses to disarm, stalling second phase of Gaza peace plan
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%18%
The transition to the second phase of the Gaza peace plan, which includes Hamas disarmament, was stalled as Hamas refused to give up its weapons, leading to increased skepticism about disarmament prospects and a drop in market prices.
Hamas rejects US-backed disarmament plan, seeks changes amid ceasefire tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%4%
Hamas declined to accept the disarmament framework tied to the next phase of the ceasefire, requesting modifications and emphasizing Israel must fulfill its obligations first. This rejection stalled negotiations and pushed the market price for disarmament by June 30, 2026, down to 0%.
US and Iran announce interim agreement to halt war, but Middle East tensions persist
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
On June 15, the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt war, raising hopes for regional stability. However, this did not directly affect Hamas disarmament talks, and market prices continued to decline amid ongoing Gaza conflict and stalled ceasefire progress.
EU fails to agree on sanctions against Israeli official amid Gaza conflict
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The European Union's failure to sanction Israeli official Ben Gvir despite pressure highlighted ongoing international divisions and lack of progress toward peace or disarmament in the region, negatively impacting market confidence in Hamas disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Continued Israeli strikes and stalled Gaza ceasefire talks deepen uncertainty
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On June 14, ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza and stalled political arrangements for Gaza, including Hamas disarmament, were reported. The worsening humanitarian situation and lack of progress in disarmament talks further reduced market confidence in a timely Hamas disarmament announcement.
Cairo talks stall over Hamas disarmament, Israel prepares for possible renewed fighting
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%7%
Between June 9 and 11, reports highlighted a deadlock in Cairo talks over Hamas disarmament, a key obstacle to ceasefire progress. Israel's military preparations for potential large-scale conflict increased market doubts about imminent disarmament, causing price volatility and decline.
Internal letter threatens ceasefire nullification if Hamas refuses disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 4%6%
A leaked letter from Board of Peace officials warned Palestinian authorities that refusal by Hamas to comply with disarmament demands would render ceasefire terms null and void, potentially leading to renewed Israeli military action. This hardened stance further reduced market optimism, with prices dropping sharply from 10% to 4% in mid-June.
Gaza Peace Talks Stall Over Hamas Disarmament Demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Negotiations to finalize a lasting peace in Gaza hit a critical impasse as Hamas resisted total surrender and proposed only a symbolic handover of weapons, which Israel categorically rejected.
Mediators propose gradual Hamas disarmament in exchange for phased Israeli withdrawal
December 31, 2026 drops to 30%5%
Mediators presented Hamas with a disarmament proposal under the Trump plan, involving supervised weapons surrender and Israeli withdrawal stages. Despite this, Hamas did not accept the plan outright, prolonging the deadlock and causing market confidence in disarmament by year-end to decline sharply.
Mediators propose gradual Hamas disarmament linked to phased Israeli withdrawal
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey presented Hamas with a staged disarmament proposal under US President Trump's Gaza plan, linking Hamas's disarmament to phased Israeli military withdrawal and humanitarian aid. Despite this, Hamas's acceptance remained uncertain, maintaining market pessimism.
Mediators propose phased Hamas disarmament under UN‑supervised force
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%35%
Mediators presented Hamas with a staged disarmament proposal that required weapons to be handed over under UN‑supervised control. The plan’s public release highlighted that Hamas had not yet made a formal disarmament announcement, reinforcing market expectations that a “Yes” outcome was unlikely. The price for the December‑31, 2026 outcome fell from 48 % to 13 % in the following days.
Hamas sets conditions for disarmament talks under Trump’s Gaza plan
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%18%
Hamas publicly set conditions for any disarmament talks, insisting on retaining personal firearms and demanding that Israel first complete the first phase of the cease‑fire plan. The statement was widely reported, confirming that Hamas was not ready to announce a disarmament, causing the market’s “Yes” probability to plunge further.
Hamas refuses to surrender arms but agrees only police to carry weapons in Gaza
June 30, 2026 drops to 1%5%
Hamas reiterated it would not hand over its weapons immediately, resisting disarmament demands and stating the fate of its arsenal would be decided after broader Palestinian discussions. This hardened stance further diminished market expectations for disarmament by mid-2026.
Hamas publicly rejects immediate disarmament, proposes police-only weapons in Gaza
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Hamas stated it will not surrender its weapons immediately, resisting disarmament demands and indicating that the fate of its arsenal will be decided after comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Hamas states it will not surrender arms but only police will carry weapons in Gaza
December 31, 2026 drops to 20%10%
Hamas publicly declared it will not hand over its weapons at this time, resisting disarmament demands and stating that the fate of its military arsenal will be decided after comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions. This official stance reinforced the deadlock and led to further decline in market prices for disarmament by December 31, 2026.
Hamas-Mladenov talks postponed; Hamas may yield on heavy weapons
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
On June 4, talks between Gaza factions and Board of Peace head Nickolay Mladenov were postponed, with reports suggesting Hamas might surrender heavy weapons but retain firearms. This partial openness did not amount to a formal disarmament policy, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Hamas-Mladenov talks postponed amid disarmament deadlock
Negotiations between Hamas and the Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov were postponed due to Hamas's reluctance to fully disarm, though Hamas showed openness to surrendering heavy weapons but insisted on retaining firearms. This delay and partial stance reinforced market doubts about imminent disarmament.
Ceasefire diplomacy at crossroads as Hamas mediators prepare for disarmament talks in Egypt
On June 2, reports indicated that Turkish intelligence and Arab mediators were preparing for disarmament talks with Hamas in Egypt, signaling ongoing but stalled negotiations. This raised some market optimism, reflected in a slight price increase, but no formal disarmament announcement was made, keeping uncertainty high.
Hamas reiterates refusal to disarm before full ceasefire implementation
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
Hamas leadership reaffirmed that disarmament is unacceptable without Israel fulfilling its commitments under the first phase of the ceasefire, emphasizing the need for guarantees and humanitarian aid flow. This hardened stance contributed to the market price for disarmament by June 30, 2026, dropping to near zero.
Hamas rejects Israeli expansion plan, disarmament talks remain stalled
Hamas condemned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's plan to expand control in Gaza as dangerous escalation. Disarmament talks mediated by the Board of Peace remained deadlocked, with Hamas refusing to accept disarmament proposals and key issues postponed, keeping market confidence low.
Netanyahu orders Israeli army to seize 70% of Gaza, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered expansion of military control over Gaza to 70%, violating the ceasefire and complicating disarmament talks. This military escalation increased doubts about Hamas disarming soon, negatively impacting market confidence.
Netanyahu orders Israeli army to seize 70% of Gaza, violating ceasefire deal
December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%18%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced plans to increase Israeli control over 70% of Gaza, violating the ceasefire agreement and complicating disarmament negotiations. Hamas indicated willingness to discuss disarmament only after Israel fulfills its obligations, signaling a deadlock and reducing market confidence in Hamas disarming by December 31, 2026.
Mladenov urges UN to press Hamas to disarm and Israel to honour ceasefire
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Nickolay Mladenov called on the UN Security Council to use all means to press Hamas to disarm, emphasizing the risk of a deteriorating status quo and the need for a durable ceasefire. This statement underscored the stalemate and the critical role of disarmament in peace progress, further dampening market optimism for disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Board of Peace to ask UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
The Board of Peace, led by Nickolay Mladenov, announced plans to urge the UN Security Council to pressure Hamas to disarm, citing it as a non-negotiable condition and a central obstacle to progress in Gaza. This reinforced international insistence on Hamas disarmament but highlighted the deadlock, impacting market confidence negatively for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Israel kills Hamas’ top military commander Izz al‑Din al‑Haddad
June 30, 2026 dips to 7%4%
Israeli forces eliminated Hamas’ military chief Izz al‑Din al‑Haddad. The leadership loss raised doubts about Hamas’ ability to negotiate a credible disarmament, pushing the market back down toward the “June 30 2026” outcome.
Israeli forces eliminate Hamas military wing leader Izz al-Din al-Haddad
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%6%
The killing of Hamas's military wing leader was a significant blow to Hamas's military capabilities and reconstruction efforts, signaling ongoing conflict and Hamas's resilience, which contributed to market pessimism about disarmament.
Board of Peace to ask UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
The Board of Peace announced it would petition the UN Security Council to pressure Hamas to disarm. The move underscored the lack of a direct Hamas commitment and reinforced market expectations that the June deadline would not be met.
Board of Peace prepares 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Bloomberg reported the Board of Peace was preparing a 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament. The continued discussion without a public Hamas pledge reinforced the market’s view that a June deadline was improbable.
Gaza envoy says plan underway to advance peace and disarm Hamas
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
The Board of Peace envoy stated a 15-point plan for Hamas disarmament is being prepared, but disarmament remains a major sticking point with no official Hamas commitment, keeping market confidence very low.
Board of Peace envoy Mladenov states ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament
Nickolay Mladenov, the US-led Board of Peace envoy, declared that the ceasefire and reconstruction in Gaza were stalled due to Hamas' refusal to disarm, calling disarmament "not negotiable." This statement highlighted the central obstacle to peace, causing market confidence in disarmament by June 30 to drop further.
Gaza envoy says Board of Peace drafting 15‑point disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Bloomberg quoted a Gaza envoy saying the Board of Peace was preparing a 15‑point plan that includes Hamas disarmament. The announcement revived expectations of a June 2026 disarmament, nudging the market upward before a subsequent decline.
Board of Peace envoy says Gaza ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament, calling it 'not negotiable'
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%7%
Nickolay Mladenov, the top diplomat overseeing the ceasefire, stated that the truce was stalled due to Hamas's refusal to disarm, emphasizing disarmament as a critical and non-negotiable condition, reinforcing market pessimism.
Gaza envoy outlines plan to disarm Hamas and advance peace efforts
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%5%
Bloomberg reported that the Board was finalising a 15‑point plan for Hamas disarmament, reinforcing expectations of a concrete timeline. The market slipped further, with the “Yes” probability falling to a new low of 7 % on May 13.
Hamas rejects US-backed disarmament plan as 'collective suicide'
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Hamas publicly dismissed a US-backed proposal presented in Cairo to disarm the group, calling it a trap that could ignite civil war in Gaza. The rejection reinforced Hamas's refusal to disarm before Israel fulfills ceasefire obligations, causing market confidence in disarmament by June 30, 2026, to decline further.
Negotiations between Hamas and Board of Peace reach impasse over disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%8%
Hamas refused to disarm and proceed to phase two of the ceasefire deal, leading to Israeli security cabinet discussions about renewing fighting. This hardened stance caused further market price drops.
Israel-backed militias intensify clashes with Hamas in Gaza
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%3%
Israel-backed armed groups fighting Hamas expanded operations deeper into Gaza, increasing internal conflict and making Hamas less willing to compromise on disarmament, negatively impacting market confidence.
Hamas officials say group is ready to hand over some weapons
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%1%
The New York Times published that Hamas officials said they were ready to hand over some weapons to the Board‑run committee. The market rebounded slightly, raising the “Yes” probability from 11 % (Apr 4) to 12 % (Apr 11).
Hamas officials say group ready to hand over some weapons
June 30, 2026 jumps to 25%6%
The New York Times reported that two senior Hamas officials said the group was ready to hand over “thousands of automatic rifles”, a limited concession that lifted market optimism slightly, moving the price up a few points.
Hamas officials say group ready to hand over some weapons, short of full disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%6%
Two senior Hamas officials indicated willingness to relinquish some automatic rifles and arms, a partial concession falling short of full disarmament demanded by Israel and the US, leading to modest market price declines.
Board of Peace gives Hamas final week‑long deadline to accept disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
The Times of Israel reported that the Board of Peace gave Hamas a final deadline to accept the disarmament framework by the end of the week. The deadline’s approach, with no agreement, contributed to the market’s slide in mid‑April.
Board of Peace gives Hamas week‑long ultimatum on disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The Board of Peace gave Hamas a final week‑long ultimatum to accept a phased disarmament plan. The deadline, coupled with Hamas’ refusal, implied the plan would not be implemented by early June, pushing the market further down.
Hamas given ultimatum on disarmament after group signals unwillingness to cooperate
June 30, 2026 plunges to 11%15%
FDD reported that Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida publicly rejected the disarmament plan, prompting the Board to issue an ultimatum. The market fell sharply, dropping the “Yes” probability from 26 % (Apr 2) to 11 % (Apr 4).
Trump’s Board of Peace gives Hamas deadline to accept disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%4%
The Board of Peace demanded Hamas finalize an agreement to demilitarize Gaza by the end of the week, increasing pressure on Hamas. The ultimatum underscored the impasse as Hamas had not agreed to disarm, pushing market prices lower.
Board of Peace demands Hamas finalize disarmament agreement by week's end
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%9%
In early April, the Board of Peace demanded Hamas finalize a disarmament agreement by the end of the week, increasing pressure. Hamas spokesman rejected disarmament outright, signaling unwillingness to comply and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Hamas spokesman rejects disarmament under any circumstances
June 30, 2026 drops to 10%10%
Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida publicly rejected disarmament, stating it would not be accepted under any circumstances. This hardened stance contributed to a sharp market decline in disarmament probability.
Hamas spokesperson rejects disarmament outright
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida publicly rejected any disarmament, saying it would not be accepted under any circumstances. The outright refusal signaled that a formal disarmament announcement before the June‑30 deadline was unlikely, driving the market down sharply.
Hamas armed wing rejects disarmament, issues ultimatum
June 30, 2026 drops to 19%7%
Al Jazeera reported that Hamas armed‑wing spokesperson Abu Obeida issued an ultimatum rejecting any disarmament, saying it would not be accepted. The hard‑line stance caused the market to tumble to its lowest levels in early April.
Hamas weighs new proposal for disarming fighters in Gaza
By late March 2026, Hamas was reported to be considering a new disarmament proposal from the Board of Peace, a major concession that could enable reconstruction. However, no official disarmament announcement was made, and skepticism remained, reflected in stable low market prices.
Board of Peace presents eight‑month Hamas disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%23%
Reuters reported that the Board of Peace presented Hamas with a detailed eight‑month disarmament plan. Hamas’s silence and study of the document were interpreted as a lack of immediate commitment, contributing to the early decline in market confidence.
Details of phased Hamas disarmament plan revealed, including tunnel destruction
June 30, 2026 drops to 18%7%
Further details emerged about the disarmament plan requiring Hamas to surrender arms in stages over eight months, with verification by a weapons committee. Despite the plan's presentation, Hamas publicly rejected disarmament but privately showed some openness under political conditions.
Details of Board of Peace eight‑month Gaza disarmament plan released
June 30, 2026 rises to 24%1%
Al Jazeera published details of the Board of Peace’s eight‑month disarmament plan. The exposure of a concrete timeline briefly revived hopes for a June 2026 disarmament, lifting the market before it fell again as negotiations stalled.
Details revealed of Board of Peace plan for Gaza disarmament
June 30, 2026 jumps to 30%7%
Al Jazeera published details of the Board’s eight‑month disarmament schedule, suggesting a clear pathway but also highlighting Hamas’s refusal. The news coincided with a modest rise in the market to 30 % on Mar 21.
Board of Peace envoy details phased disarmament plan to UN Security Council
On March 24, 2026, Nickolay Mladenov, Board of Peace envoy, presented a detailed phased disarmament plan to the UN Security Council, emphasizing verification and linking reconstruction to disarmament. This formalized the plan but highlighted the complexity and conditionality, maintaining market uncertainty.
Hamas given until week’s end to accept disarmament proposal — sources
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%7%
The Times of Israel reported that Mladenov gave Hamas a deadline to accept the disarmament plan by the end of the week. The market reacted positively, lifting the “Yes” probability to about 30 % on Mar 21 before easing back to 23 % on Mar 23.
UN Security Council discusses Gaza disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%14%
On March 24, the UN Security Council discussed the disarmament plan for Gaza, emphasizing that reconstruction depends on Hamas decommissioning its weapons. This reinforced international pressure but Hamas had not committed to disarmament, maintaining market uncertainty.
Trump's Board of Peace presents written disarmament proposal to Hamas
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%11%
The Board of Peace formally handed Hamas a written proposal for phased disarmament, including destruction of tunnels and staged arms surrender. Hamas representatives did not immediately respond, and internal divisions and rival militias complicated acceptance.
U.S. Board of Peace delivers disarmament proposal, Hamas rejects it
June 30, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Reuters reported that the U.S. Board of Peace handed Hamas a written disarmament proposal, which Hamas rejected. The rejection raised doubts that a formal disarmament could be achieved soon, pushing the market down toward the “June 30 2026” outcome.
Trump’s peace board hands Hamas disarmament proposal, sources say
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%11%
Reuters reported that the U.S. President’s Board of Peace delivered a written disarmament proposal to Hamas. The news sparked a sharp fall in market prices as traders saw the first concrete offer, moving the “Yes” probability from roughly 34 % (Feb 22) to 26 % (Feb 16) and down to 23 % by Mar 11.
Trump's Board of Peace offers Hamas formal proposal to disarm in Gaza
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Mediators presented Hamas with a comprehensive framework for complete handover and decommissioning of arms, linking acceptance to Gaza's reconstruction. Hamas delayed response pending Iran war outcome, causing market uncertainty.
Trump's mediators offer Hamas formal proposal to disarm in Gaza
June 30, 2026 jumps to 34%10%
On March 19, 2026, mediators from Trump's Board of Peace quietly presented Hamas with a formal proposal to hand over all weapons to enable Gaza's reconstruction. This raised hopes for disarmament but Hamas criticized the offer as 'take it or leave it,' causing mixed market reactions.
Board of Peace presents phased disarmament plan to Hamas
June 30, 2026 rises to 24%1%
The US-led Board of Peace formally presented Hamas with a detailed phased disarmament plan requiring full handover of weapons over eight months, including destruction of tunnels. Hamas officials studied but did not accept the plan, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%15%
By late February 2026, disagreements over how Hamas should disarm stalled progress on the Gaza peace plan. Experts predicted Hamas would reject the plan as it lacked guarantees of Israeli withdrawal, leading to market price drops reflecting diminished disarmament prospects.
Detailed Gaza disarmament plan to be presented to Hamas in March
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%20%
Reports emerged that a detailed disarmament plan would be presented to Hamas in March, outlining a phased process including handing over weapons and tunnel maps. This raised initial market hopes for disarmament, reflected in early price fluctuations.
Israel gives Hamas 60-day ultimatum to disarm or face renewed war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 29%24%
Israeli officials, coordinated with the Trump administration, issued a 60-day ultimatum for Hamas to disarm, threatening to resume full-scale combat if unmet. Hamas rejected the ultimatum, dampening market optimism about disarmament within the deadline.
President Trump demands full and immediate Hamas disarmament ahead of Board of Peace talks
June 30, 2026 rises to 53%4%
President Trump publicly called for Hamas to fully disarm as a precondition for Gaza reconstruction, marking the formal transition to Phase 2 of the US-backed peace plan. This raised market expectations initially but also highlighted the high stakes and Hamas's traditional resistance to disarmament.
Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal rejects disarmament while Israeli occupation continues
June 30, 2026 drops to 23%14%
On February 8, 2026, Khaled Meshaal publicly rejected calls for Hamas disarmament, arguing that disarming under occupation would leave Palestinians vulnerable. This reinforced Hamas's stance against disarmament without Israeli withdrawal, negatively impacting market confidence in a disarmament announcement.
Hamas leader rejects disarmament while Israeli occupation continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 26%4%
Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal publicly rejected calls for disarmament, stating that disarming under occupation would make Palestinians easy victims. This hardened stance contributed to a sharp market drop in disarmament probability.
Board of Peace sources say Hamas disarmament could begin as early as March 2026
Two sources from the US President Donald Trump's Gaza Board of Peace indicated that Hamas disarmament might start in March 2026, coinciding with a new technocratic government taking over Gaza. This initial optimism raised market probabilities for disarmament.
Senior Hamas official denies any agreement to disarm
On January 29, 2026, senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk publicly stated that Hamas had never agreed to disarm and that no direct discussions on disarmament had taken place, casting doubt on the likelihood of Hamas fulfilling disarmament demands. This statement likely contributed to initial market uncertainty.
Hamas spokesperson states resistance weapons are internal Palestinian matter
On January 29, 2026, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem emphasized that the issue of resistance weapons is an internal Palestinian matter to be resolved through dialogue, reaffirming Hamas's commitment to governance transfer but not disarmament. This statement cast doubt on imminent formal disarmament, contributing to market uncertainty.
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