Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government gained a majority through five opposition floor crossings since November 2025, the latest by longtime Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8. Conservative caucus tensions under Pierre Poilievre continue, fueled by reported Liberal recruitment efforts and policy alignment incentives, though no further switches have occurred in the past month amid public rebuffs and opposition criticism. A petition exceeding 100,000 signatures demands by-elections for defectors, while upcoming parliamentary sittings and any internal Conservative leadership strains could create openings. Traders monitor caucus stability and targeted outreach as the main variables likely to prompt the next change in party affiliation.