Senator John Fetterman remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party despite ongoing tensions with its progressive wing over issues like strong support for Israel, border security, and criticism of party leadership on antisemitism and foreign policy. Traders' near-unanimous 95.5% implied probability on "No" reflects his explicit dismissal of party-switch speculation as recently as early May 2026, stating he would make a "terrible Republican" and affirming no plans to leave amid reelection pressures in 2028 for Pennsylvania's competitive Senate seat. Recent votes, including his decisive opposition to an Iran War Powers Resolution limiting executive action, have fueled rumors but elicited no defection announcements. With just six weeks until June 30 resolution, only a sudden personal scandal, health event, or intraparty ultimatum could shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor incumbents holding party affiliation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.06.30
신규
신규
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Senator John Fetterman remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party despite ongoing tensions with its progressive wing over issues like strong support for Israel, border security, and criticism of party leadership on antisemitism and foreign policy. Traders' near-unanimous 95.5% implied probability on "No" reflects his explicit dismissal of party-switch speculation as recently as early May 2026, stating he would make a "terrible Republican" and affirming no plans to leave amid reelection pressures in 2028 for Pennsylvania's competitive Senate seat. Recent votes, including his decisive opposition to an Iran War Powers Resolution limiting executive action, have fueled rumors but elicited no defection announcements. With just six weeks until June 30 resolution, only a sudden personal scandal, health event, or intraparty ultimatum could shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor incumbents holding party affiliation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
거래량
$3,021종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Senator John Fetterman remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party despite ongoing tensions with its progressive wing over issues like strong support for Israel, border security, and criticism of party leadership on antisemitism and foreign policy. Traders' near-unanimous 95.5% implied probability on "No" reflects his explicit dismissal of party-switch speculation as recently as early May 2026, stating he would make a "terrible Republican" and affirming no plans to leave amid reelection pressures in 2028 for Pennsylvania's competitive Senate seat. Recent votes, including his decisive opposition to an Iran War Powers Resolution limiting executive action, have fueled rumors but elicited no defection announcements. With just six weeks until June 30 resolution, only a sudden personal scandal, health event, or intraparty ultimatum could shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor incumbents holding party affiliation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$3,021종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Senator John Fetterman remains firmly aligned with the Democratic Party despite ongoing tensions with its progressive wing over issues like strong support for Israel, border security, and criticism of party leadership on antisemitism and foreign policy. Traders' near-unanimous 95.5% implied probability on "No" reflects his explicit dismissal of party-switch speculation as recently as early May 2026, stating he would make a "terrible Republican" and affirming no plans to leave amid reelection pressures in 2028 for Pennsylvania's competitive Senate seat. Recent votes, including his decisive opposition to an Iran War Powers Resolution limiting executive action, have fueled rumors but elicited no defection announcements. With just six weeks until June 30 resolution, only a sudden personal scandal, health event, or intraparty ultimatum could shift dynamics, though historical patterns favor incumbents holding party affiliation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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