Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 4?
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 13%
신규
$10,352 거래량
신규
$10,352 거래량
2026.07.04
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
21%
29°C
36%
30°C
22%
31°C
13%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 13%
신규
$10,352 거래량
신규
$10,352 거래량
2026.07.04
23°C or below
$657 거래량
<1%
24°C
$633 거래량
<1%
25°C
$663 거래량
1%
26°C
$750 거래량
1%
27°C
$463 거래량
5%
28°C
$520 거래량
21%
29°C
$993 거래량
36%
30°C
$3,703 거래량
22%
31°C
$791 거래량
13%
32°C
$470 거래량
4%
33°C or higher
$779 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
거래량
$10,352종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$10,352종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate a July 4 high near 30°C amid moderate rain and high humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon, with model consensus tempered by variable cloud cover and South China Sea moisture influx. These conditions limit peak solar heating and explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C, as small shifts in precipitation timing or intensity can alter the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Subtropical July climatology supports baselines of 29–32°C, yet recent runs show slightly cooler guidance than seasonal averages due to expected convective activity. Traders weigh NHC-style regional model updates and local station data releases through July 3 as the key near-term catalysts that could resolve remaining uncertainty between the top outcomes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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