Recent USGS monitoring of global seismic activity shows a steady background rate of one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week on average, placing that outcome at the center of trader consensus. No major aftershock sequences, subduction-zone clusters, or foreshock swarms have appeared in the current seven-day window, keeping the probability of zero or multiple events low. Model runs and historical analogs indicate that isolated events in tectonically active regions remain the most common pattern, with any shift likely tied to updated magnitude reports or new epicenter confirmations before the period closes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 87%
2 14%
3 3.5%
0 <1%
$49,313 거래량
$49,313 거래량
0
1%
1
82%
2
14%
3
3%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 87%
2 14%
3 3.5%
0 <1%
$49,313 거래량
$49,313 거래량
0
1%
1
82%
2
14%
3
3%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS monitoring of global seismic activity shows a steady background rate of one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week on average, placing that outcome at the center of trader consensus. No major aftershock sequences, subduction-zone clusters, or foreshock swarms have appeared in the current seven-day window, keeping the probability of zero or multiple events low. Model runs and historical analogs indicate that isolated events in tectonically active regions remain the most common pattern, with any shift likely tied to updated magnitude reports or new epicenter confirmations before the period closes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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