Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트44명 이상 40.5%
28–31 12%
32–35 <1%
24명 미만 <1%
$56,541 거래량
$56,541 거래량
2026.08.31
24명 미만
<1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
14%
32–35
1%
36–39
44%
40~43
45%
44명 이상
41%
44명 이상 40.5%
28–31 12%
32–35 <1%
24명 미만 <1%
$56,541 거래량
$56,541 거래량
2026.08.31
24명 미만
$3,907 거래량
<1%
24–27
$18,964 거래량
<1%
28–31
$21,831 거래량
14%
32–35
$4,611 거래량
1%
36–39
$2,548 거래량
44%
40~43
$2,077 거래량
45%
44명 이상
$2,602 거래량
41%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
거래량
$56,541종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$56,541종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements have pushed the total of Republican House members declining to seek re-election in 2026 to the mid-to-high 30s, with additional departures expected before filing deadlines in key states. Redistricting outcomes, opportunities to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, and primary pressures in competitive districts have accelerated these decisions, consistent with elevated retirement patterns seen in prior midterm cycles for the party holding the majority. The market’s tight pricing among the 36–39, 40–43, and 44+ ranges reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further retirements will materialize, particularly from members weighing personal factors against the 2026 electoral map.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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