Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$116,111 거래량
$116,111 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
62%
민주당
40%
$116,111 거래량
$116,111 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$53,154 거래량
62%
민주당
$62,957 거래량
40%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
거래량
$116,111종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$116,111종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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