Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
$926,893 거래량
2026.07.31
July 7
$17,813 거래량
3%
July 31
$300,332 거래량
10%
$926,893 거래량
July 7
$17,813 거래량
3%
July 31
$300,332 거래량
10%
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jul 2 2026
US and Iran agree to continue discussions after Doha talks
On July 2, 2026, following indirect talks in Doha, US and Iranian negotiators separately met with mediators and agreed to continue discussions, showing no official termination of negotiations by Iran.
Jul 1 2026
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 7 drops to 2%12%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through mediators, focusing on frozen assets and the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing negotiation efforts without official withdrawal.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies scheduling talks with US amid ongoing tensions
July 7 drops to 3%11%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated no negotiation meetings with the US were scheduled in the coming days, emphasizing that technical talks in Qatar were unrelated to US officials. This indicated a pause but not a termination of negotiations, contributing to market price declines.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies plans for technical talks with US, prioritizes MoU implementation
On June 29, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated Iran's priority was ensuring MoU implementation and denied scheduled technical talks with the US that week, signaling reluctance but not official withdrawal from negotiations.
Jun 28 2026
Iranian officials assert control over Strait of Hormuz, warn against US violations of MoU
July 31 rises to 29%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran is solely responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz under the MoU, rejecting US interpretations. Iran threatened to suspend negotiations if the US challenged Iranian sovereignty, increasing tensions but not ending talks.
Jun 27 2026
Iran condemns Israeli military actions in Lebanon, threatens to halt diplomatic processes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Iranian state media and officials criticized Israeli military operations in Lebanon as violations of the MoU and warned that US strikes on Iran could lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic processes, including negotiations. This increased market uncertainty but did not constitute an official withdrawal announcement.
Jun 26 2026
Iran threatens to halt all diplomatic processes after US strikes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
On June 26-27, Iran's IRGC Navy stated that US strikes violated the ceasefire and warned of a complete halt to diplomatic processes. Despite this threat, Iran did not officially announce withdrawal from negotiations, leading to market fluctuations but no definitive resolution.
Jun 22 2026
US-Iran talks in Switzerland end with roadmap agreed, technical talks to continue
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan announced that US and Iranian officials concluded high-level talks in Switzerland with an agreed roadmap for a lasting deal within 60 days, but technical negotiations were to continue. This reduced the market's perceived likelihood of Iran withdrawing from the MoU negotiations.
Jun 22 2026
US and Iran hold high-level talks in Switzerland to advance peace deal
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
On June 21-22, 2026, US and Iranian officials met in Switzerland for direct talks following the June 17 MoU signing, discussing nuclear, sanctions, and dispute resolution. This engagement indicated Iran's continued participation in negotiations, causing a sharp drop in the market's probability of withdrawal.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.
Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Iran and the United States signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 that ended active hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for technical negotiations on a final agreement covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional ceasefires including Lebanon. As of June 21–22, talks in Switzerland have focused on sequencing, with Iranian negotiators insisting that clauses on Lebanese ceasefire, asset releases, and naval de-escalation must be implemented before nuclear discussions advance. Iranian officials temporarily withdrew from sessions in protest of U.S. statements before returning, while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue facilitating working groups. These frictions over implementation timelines and leverage points in the MOU directly shape trader assessments of any near-term Iranian announcement of withdrawal from the process.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Jul 2 2026
US and Iran agree to continue discussions after Doha talks
On July 2, 2026, following indirect talks in Doha, US and Iranian negotiators separately met with mediators and agreed to continue discussions, showing no official termination of negotiations by Iran.
Jul 1 2026
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 7 drops to 2%12%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through mediators, focusing on frozen assets and the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing negotiation efforts without official withdrawal.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies scheduling talks with US amid ongoing tensions
July 7 drops to 3%11%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated no negotiation meetings with the US were scheduled in the coming days, emphasizing that technical talks in Qatar were unrelated to US officials. This indicated a pause but not a termination of negotiations, contributing to market price declines.
Jun 29 2026
Iran denies plans for technical talks with US, prioritizes MoU implementation
On June 29, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated Iran's priority was ensuring MoU implementation and denied scheduled technical talks with the US that week, signaling reluctance but not official withdrawal from negotiations.
Jun 28 2026
Iranian officials assert control over Strait of Hormuz, warn against US violations of MoU
July 31 rises to 29%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran is solely responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz under the MoU, rejecting US interpretations. Iran threatened to suspend negotiations if the US challenged Iranian sovereignty, increasing tensions but not ending talks.
Jun 27 2026
Iran condemns Israeli military actions in Lebanon, threatens to halt diplomatic processes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Iranian state media and officials criticized Israeli military operations in Lebanon as violations of the MoU and warned that US strikes on Iran could lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic processes, including negotiations. This increased market uncertainty but did not constitute an official withdrawal announcement.
Jun 26 2026
Iran threatens to halt all diplomatic processes after US strikes
July 31 rises to 27%1%
On June 26-27, Iran's IRGC Navy stated that US strikes violated the ceasefire and warned of a complete halt to diplomatic processes. Despite this threat, Iran did not officially announce withdrawal from negotiations, leading to market fluctuations but no definitive resolution.
Jun 22 2026
US-Iran talks in Switzerland end with roadmap agreed, technical talks to continue
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan announced that US and Iranian officials concluded high-level talks in Switzerland with an agreed roadmap for a lasting deal within 60 days, but technical negotiations were to continue. This reduced the market's perceived likelihood of Iran withdrawing from the MoU negotiations.
Jun 22 2026
US and Iran hold high-level talks in Switzerland to advance peace deal
July 31 plunges to 16%29%
On June 21-22, 2026, US and Iranian officials met in Switzerland for direct talks following the June 17 MoU signing, discussing nuclear, sanctions, and dispute resolution. This engagement indicated Iran's continued participation in negotiations, causing a sharp drop in the market's probability of withdrawal.
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자주 묻는 질문
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 10%의 "July 31"이며, 이어서 3%의 "July 7"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 10¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 10%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"은 총 $926.9K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Jun 22, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"의 현재 유력 후보는 10%의 "July 31"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 10%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 3%의 "July 7"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"에 $926.9K이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" 마켓에서 "July 31"의 10¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "July 31"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 10%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 10¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 90¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" 마켓은 Jul 31, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 22개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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