House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's incumbency in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. Scalise's past nonpartisan primary wins exceeding 66% and fundraising dominance underscore the district's conservative lean in southeast Louisiana suburbs. Recent Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29 struck down the congressional map as a racial gerrymander, prompting Governor Jeff Landry to suspend May 16 primaries and June 27 runoffs pending redistricting; however, May 13 legislative moves signal a GOP-favorable new map preserving LA-01's boundaries. Weak Democratic opposition from Lauren Jewett reinforces the edge. Realistic challenges include a redrawn competitive district, Scalise scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Democrats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$34,248 거래량
$34,248 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
91%
민주당
11%
$34,248 거래량
$34,248 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$16,035 거래량
91%
민주당
$18,213 거래량
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's incumbency in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. Scalise's past nonpartisan primary wins exceeding 66% and fundraising dominance underscore the district's conservative lean in southeast Louisiana suburbs. Recent Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29 struck down the congressional map as a racial gerrymander, prompting Governor Jeff Landry to suspend May 16 primaries and June 27 runoffs pending redistricting; however, May 13 legislative moves signal a GOP-favorable new map preserving LA-01's boundaries. Weak Democratic opposition from Lauren Jewett reinforces the edge. Realistic challenges include a redrawn competitive district, Scalise scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$34,248종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's incumbency in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. Scalise's past nonpartisan primary wins exceeding 66% and fundraising dominance underscore the district's conservative lean in southeast Louisiana suburbs. Recent Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29 struck down the congressional map as a racial gerrymander, prompting Governor Jeff Landry to suspend May 16 primaries and June 27 runoffs pending redistricting; however, May 13 legislative moves signal a GOP-favorable new map preserving LA-01's boundaries. Weak Democratic opposition from Lauren Jewett reinforces the edge. Realistic challenges include a redrawn competitive district, Scalise scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$34,248종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's incumbency in Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+19, anchors trader consensus at 90.5% for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. Scalise's past nonpartisan primary wins exceeding 66% and fundraising dominance underscore the district's conservative lean in southeast Louisiana suburbs. Recent Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29 struck down the congressional map as a racial gerrymander, prompting Governor Jeff Landry to suspend May 16 primaries and June 27 runoffs pending redistricting; however, May 13 legislative moves signal a GOP-favorable new map preserving LA-01's boundaries. Weak Democratic opposition from Lauren Jewett reinforces the edge. Realistic challenges include a redrawn competitive district, Scalise scandal, or national midterm wave boosting Democrats.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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