Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight increased monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers over Seoul through mid-July, suppressing daytime heating and limiting nocturnal radiative cooling to position morning lows near or below 23°C. This aligns with the market's leading 19°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability, as persistent humidity near 80% and variable precipitation patterns create conditions for modest cooling relative to seasonal averages of 22–23°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and rainfall timing over the next 48 hours remains the key variable that could shift probabilities toward the clustered 22–24°C outcomes if clearer skies allow greater overnight warming.