July's typical subtropical monsoon regime keeps Hong Kong highs near 29–32 °C, with the market’s near-tie between 29 °C and 30 °C reflecting model consensus for July 14 that includes afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover. These conditions limit peak insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima while the urban heat-island effect and high humidity sustain warmth. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance of normal-to-above-normal temperatures supports the slight edge for 30 °C, yet short-range guidance showing persistent overcast skies and rain favors 29 °C or lower. Any last-minute clearing or delayed shower timing could shift the daily maximum across the narrow threshold, which is why the two leading outcomes remain so evenly matched.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트7월 14일 홍콩에서 가장 높은 기온?
29°C 43%
30°C 42%
31°C 7.8%
28°C 7.2%
$90,944 거래량
$90,944 거래량
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
43%
30°C
42%
31°C
8%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 43%
30°C 42%
31°C 7.8%
28°C 7.2%
$90,944 거래량
$90,944 거래량
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
43%
30°C
42%
31°C
8%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...July's typical subtropical monsoon regime keeps Hong Kong highs near 29–32 °C, with the market’s near-tie between 29 °C and 30 °C reflecting model consensus for July 14 that includes afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover. These conditions limit peak insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima while the urban heat-island effect and high humidity sustain warmth. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance of normal-to-above-normal temperatures supports the slight edge for 30 °C, yet short-range guidance showing persistent overcast skies and rain favors 29 °C or lower. Any last-minute clearing or delayed shower timing could shift the daily maximum across the narrow threshold, which is why the two leading outcomes remain so evenly matched.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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