The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces several primary challengers ahead of the September 1 contest, yet the general-election outlook remains secure given limited Republican infrastructure and a single GOP primary candidate. Historical patterns in similar safe Democratic seats show incumbents rarely lose when no major scandal or redistricting shifts the map. Potential disruptions include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, an unforeseen national wave favoring Republicans, or an unexpected candidate withdrawal that alters fundraising dynamics before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$35,118 거래량
$35,118 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
$35,118 거래량
$35,118 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$17,239 거래량
94%
공화당
$17,879 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces several primary challengers ahead of the September 1 contest, yet the general-election outlook remains secure given limited Republican infrastructure and a single GOP primary candidate. Historical patterns in similar safe Democratic seats show incumbents rarely lose when no major scandal or redistricting shifts the map. Potential disruptions include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, an unforeseen national wave favoring Republicans, or an unexpected candidate withdrawal that alters fundraising dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$35,118종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces several primary challengers ahead of the September 1 contest, yet the general-election outlook remains secure given limited Republican infrastructure and a single GOP primary candidate. Historical patterns in similar safe Democratic seats show incumbents rarely lose when no major scandal or redistricting shifts the map. Potential disruptions include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, an unforeseen national wave favoring Republicans, or an unexpected candidate withdrawal that alters fundraising dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$35,118종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+11 partisan voter index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss faces several primary challengers ahead of the September 1 contest, yet the general-election outlook remains secure given limited Republican infrastructure and a single GOP primary candidate. Historical patterns in similar safe Democratic seats show incumbents rarely lose when no major scandal or redistricting shifts the map. Potential disruptions include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, an unforeseen national wave favoring Republicans, or an unexpected candidate withdrawal that alters fundraising dynamics before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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