Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey maintains a commanding position in the Massachusetts Senate race, with trader consensus at 94.5% reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—where no Republican has won since 1972—and consistent general election polling showing him leading potential GOP challengers like John Deaton by 20+ points in April UNH surveys. Recent Emerson polling from early May highlights a tightening Democratic primary against Rep. Seth Moulton (37%-32%, 29% undecided), but even a Moulton nomination would preserve strong incumbency-style advantages in this +30D state ahead of the September 1 primary and November general. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, Markey's health concerns at age 80, or an unexpected high-profile Republican recruit amid national midterms dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,986 거래량
$12,986 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
4%
$12,986 거래량
$12,986 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,382 거래량
95%
공화당
$4,603 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey maintains a commanding position in the Massachusetts Senate race, with trader consensus at 94.5% reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—where no Republican has won since 1972—and consistent general election polling showing him leading potential GOP challengers like John Deaton by 20+ points in April UNH surveys. Recent Emerson polling from early May highlights a tightening Democratic primary against Rep. Seth Moulton (37%-32%, 29% undecided), but even a Moulton nomination would preserve strong incumbency-style advantages in this +30D state ahead of the September 1 primary and November general. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, Markey's health concerns at age 80, or an unexpected high-profile Republican recruit amid national midterms dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
거래량
$12,986종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey maintains a commanding position in the Massachusetts Senate race, with trader consensus at 94.5% reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—where no Republican has won since 1972—and consistent general election polling showing him leading potential GOP challengers like John Deaton by 20+ points in April UNH surveys. Recent Emerson polling from early May highlights a tightening Democratic primary against Rep. Seth Moulton (37%-32%, 29% undecided), but even a Moulton nomination would preserve strong incumbency-style advantages in this +30D state ahead of the September 1 primary and November general. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, Markey's health concerns at age 80, or an unexpected high-profile Republican recruit amid national midterms dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$12,986종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey maintains a commanding position in the Massachusetts Senate race, with trader consensus at 94.5% reflecting the state's deep-blue lean—where no Republican has won since 1972—and consistent general election polling showing him leading potential GOP challengers like John Deaton by 20+ points in April UNH surveys. Recent Emerson polling from early May highlights a tightening Democratic primary against Rep. Seth Moulton (37%-32%, 29% undecided), but even a Moulton nomination would preserve strong incumbency-style advantages in this +30D state ahead of the September 1 primary and November general. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Democratic scandal, Markey's health concerns at age 80, or an unexpected high-profile Republican recruit amid national midterms dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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