Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has publicly reaffirmed his intent to remain in office through at least his current term ending in 2028, most recently in an April 2026 NBC interview where he stated that stepping down is not part of the leadership vocabulary. This stance comes amid U.S. diplomatic pressure tied to sanctions relief and bilateral talks, yet no internal Communist Party signals, succession announcements, or party congress developments indicate an imminent change. Economic pressures such as widespread blackouts have not produced verifiable institutional upheaval or leadership challenges capable of forcing removal before the June 30 deadline. Traders therefore assign the 79.5 percent probability to “No,” reflecting entrenched continuity in Cuba’s one-party structure absent any immediate catalyst.