Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 77% in Montana's open Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean following the 2024 sweep where Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester, alongside incumbent Steve Daines's March retirement and endorsement of Kurt Alme as his successor. Alme leads the crowded Republican primary with solid fundraising of over $900,000 as of late March, bolstering expectations of a unified GOP nominee. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, garners 17.6% implied probability due to his $1.3 million in receipts and crossover appeal in this red state. Democrats trail at 3.8% amid a fragmented five-way primary lacking a clear frontrunner like Reilly Neill. June 2 primaries loom, with early voting underway since May 4, as the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트공화당 77%
무소속 17.6%
민주당 3.8%
$72,438 거래량
$72,438 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
77%
무소속
18%
민주당
4%
공화당 77%
무소속 17.6%
민주당 3.8%
$72,438 거래량
$72,438 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$37,391 거래량
77%
무소속
$1,493 거래량
18%
민주당
$33,554 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 77% in Montana's open Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean following the 2024 sweep where Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester, alongside incumbent Steve Daines's March retirement and endorsement of Kurt Alme as his successor. Alme leads the crowded Republican primary with solid fundraising of over $900,000 as of late March, bolstering expectations of a unified GOP nominee. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, garners 17.6% implied probability due to his $1.3 million in receipts and crossover appeal in this red state. Democrats trail at 3.8% amid a fragmented five-way primary lacking a clear frontrunner like Reilly Neill. June 2 primaries loom, with early voting underway since May 4, as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$72,438종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 77% in Montana's open Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean following the 2024 sweep where Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester, alongside incumbent Steve Daines's March retirement and endorsement of Kurt Alme as his successor. Alme leads the crowded Republican primary with solid fundraising of over $900,000 as of late March, bolstering expectations of a unified GOP nominee. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, garners 17.6% implied probability due to his $1.3 million in receipts and crossover appeal in this red state. Democrats trail at 3.8% amid a fragmented five-way primary lacking a clear frontrunner like Reilly Neill. June 2 primaries loom, with early voting underway since May 4, as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$72,438종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory at 77% in Montana's open Senate race, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean following the 2024 sweep where Tim Sheehy ousted Jon Tester, alongside incumbent Steve Daines's March retirement and endorsement of Kurt Alme as his successor. Alme leads the crowded Republican primary with solid fundraising of over $900,000 as of late March, bolstering expectations of a unified GOP nominee. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, garners 17.6% implied probability due to his $1.3 million in receipts and crossover appeal in this red state. Democrats trail at 3.8% amid a fragmented five-way primary lacking a clear frontrunner like Reilly Neill. June 2 primaries loom, with early voting underway since May 4, as the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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