Trader consensus heavily favors Chris Pappas at 92% implied probability to win New Hampshire's Democratic Senate primary on September 8, driven by his commanding 62.5% lead in the RealClearPolling average through late April, including a UNH survey showing 61% support among likely primary voters. As the popular NH-01 incumbent representative in an open seat race following Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement, Pappas benefits from superior fundraising—holding a cash edge even over GOP rivals—and strong establishment backing. Progressive challenger Karishma Manzur trails at 13% in averages despite recent protests criticizing donor influences, while state Rep. Jared Sullivan polls at just 1.5%. Scenarios to upend this include a major Pappas scandal, viral grassroots momentum for a rival, or unexpected endorsements before early voting ramps up.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,678 거래량
$12,678 거래량
크리스 파파스
91%
카리시마 만주르
5%
$12,678 거래량
$12,678 거래량
크리스 파파스
91%
카리시마 만주르
5%
If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
마켓 개설일: Nov 26, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Chris Pappas at 92% implied probability to win New Hampshire's Democratic Senate primary on September 8, driven by his commanding 62.5% lead in the RealClearPolling average through late April, including a UNH survey showing 61% support among likely primary voters. As the popular NH-01 incumbent representative in an open seat race following Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement, Pappas benefits from superior fundraising—holding a cash edge even over GOP rivals—and strong establishment backing. Progressive challenger Karishma Manzur trails at 13% in averages despite recent protests criticizing donor influences, while state Rep. Jared Sullivan polls at just 1.5%. Scenarios to upend this include a major Pappas scandal, viral grassroots momentum for a rival, or unexpected endorsements before early voting ramps up.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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