The heavily Democratic makeup of New York's 15th congressional district, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and the incumbent's 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points, drives trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome. Ritchie Torres secured renomination in the June primary against limited opposition, preserving party continuity ahead of the November general election. Forecasters across major outlets rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on consistent voter patterns in the Bronx. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing exceeding 30 points, which could occur only through extraordinary national conditions or an unforeseen development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal altering turnout dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,469 거래량
$23,469 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
4%
$23,469 거래량
$23,469 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$11,738 거래량
95%
공화당
$11,731 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic makeup of New York's 15th congressional district, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and the incumbent's 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points, drives trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome. Ritchie Torres secured renomination in the June primary against limited opposition, preserving party continuity ahead of the November general election. Forecasters across major outlets rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on consistent voter patterns in the Bronx. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing exceeding 30 points, which could occur only through extraordinary national conditions or an unforeseen development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal altering turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$23,469종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic makeup of New York's 15th congressional district, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and the incumbent's 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points, drives trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome. Ritchie Torres secured renomination in the June primary against limited opposition, preserving party continuity ahead of the November general election. Forecasters across major outlets rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on consistent voter patterns in the Bronx. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing exceeding 30 points, which could occur only through extraordinary national conditions or an unforeseen development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal altering turnout dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,469종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic makeup of New York's 15th congressional district, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and the incumbent's 2024 general election margin exceeding 55 points, drives trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome. Ritchie Torres secured renomination in the June primary against limited opposition, preserving party continuity ahead of the November general election. Forecasters across major outlets rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on consistent voter patterns in the Bronx. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing exceeding 30 points, which could occur only through extraordinary national conditions or an unforeseen development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal altering turnout dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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