Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, with markets implying a 92.8% probability of a Republican victory, driven by the district's strong GOP lean—former President Trump carried it by 38 points in 2024—and Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican" rating. Meuser faces no announced primary challengers ahead of the May 19 closed primary, while Democrat Rachel Wallace runs unopposed, per recent filings. Strong incumbent fundraising reported last week further solidifies positioning in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground absent competitive polling. Potential shifts could arise from a Meuser scandal, national midterm wave favoring Democrats, or primary surprise, though structural advantages present high barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,622 거래량
$16,622 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$16,622 거래량
$16,622 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$9,183 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$7,440 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, with markets implying a 92.8% probability of a Republican victory, driven by the district's strong GOP lean—former President Trump carried it by 38 points in 2024—and Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican" rating. Meuser faces no announced primary challengers ahead of the May 19 closed primary, while Democrat Rachel Wallace runs unopposed, per recent filings. Strong incumbent fundraising reported last week further solidifies positioning in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground absent competitive polling. Potential shifts could arise from a Meuser scandal, national midterm wave favoring Democrats, or primary surprise, though structural advantages present high barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$16,622종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, with markets implying a 92.8% probability of a Republican victory, driven by the district's strong GOP lean—former President Trump carried it by 38 points in 2024—and Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican" rating. Meuser faces no announced primary challengers ahead of the May 19 closed primary, while Democrat Rachel Wallace runs unopposed, per recent filings. Strong incumbent fundraising reported last week further solidifies positioning in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground absent competitive polling. Potential shifts could arise from a Meuser scandal, national midterm wave favoring Democrats, or primary surprise, though structural advantages present high barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,622종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Dan Meuser holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District House race, with markets implying a 92.8% probability of a Republican victory, driven by the district's strong GOP lean—former President Trump carried it by 38 points in 2024—and Cook Political Report's "Solid Republican" rating. Meuser faces no announced primary challengers ahead of the May 19 closed primary, while Democrat Rachel Wallace runs unopposed, per recent filings. Strong incumbent fundraising reported last week further solidifies positioning in this northeast Pennsylvania battleground absent competitive polling. Potential shifts could arise from a Meuser scandal, national midterm wave favoring Democrats, or primary surprise, though structural advantages present high barriers to an upset before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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