The absence of any confirmed Department of Justice charges, indictments, or active federal investigation since Tucker Carlson's March 2026 claims of a potential CIA criminal referral under the Foreign Agents Registration Act for Iran contacts anchors trader consensus at 98.9 percent against an arrest by May 31. Administration officials have publicly dismissed the underlying allegations as unfounded, with no grand jury proceedings, warrants, or evidentiary filings emerging in the interim. Federal prosecution timelines typically span months from referral to arrest, rendering the remaining two-week window insufficient absent an extraordinary acceleration. Late-breaking disclosures or sudden DOJ action remain the only realistic pathways to shift probabilities, though current records show no momentum toward such developments before the deadline.