Turkey's ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to advance a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed to enact changes without one. Recent statements from the justice minister in early May 2026 renewed calls for a new charter amid PKK peace negotiations, yet no formal announcement, timeline, or parliamentary vote has materialized. President Erdogan has repeatedly framed the effort as a national priority detached from term-limit considerations, while opposition parties and procedural hurdles continue to constrain progress. Traders therefore assign the 65.5 percent probability to “No” through year-end, reflecting the absence of any decisive legislative trigger or coalition expansion capable of meeting constitutional thresholds by December 31, 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to advance a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed to enact changes without one. Recent statements from the justice minister in early May 2026 renewed calls for a new charter amid PKK peace negotiations, yet no formal announcement, timeline, or parliamentary vote has materialized. President Erdogan has repeatedly framed the effort as a national priority detached from term-limit considerations, while opposition parties and procedural hurdles continue to constrain progress. Traders therefore assign the 65.5 percent probability to “No” through year-end, reflecting the absence of any decisive legislative trigger or coalition expansion capable of meeting constitutional thresholds by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
거래량
$530종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to advance a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed to enact changes without one. Recent statements from the justice minister in early May 2026 renewed calls for a new charter amid PKK peace negotiations, yet no formal announcement, timeline, or parliamentary vote has materialized. President Erdogan has repeatedly framed the effort as a national priority detached from term-limit considerations, while opposition parties and procedural hurdles continue to constrain progress. Traders therefore assign the 65.5 percent probability to “No” through year-end, reflecting the absence of any decisive legislative trigger or coalition expansion capable of meeting constitutional thresholds by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$530종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey's ruling AKP-MHP coalition holds 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes required to advance a constitutional referendum or the 400 needed to enact changes without one. Recent statements from the justice minister in early May 2026 renewed calls for a new charter amid PKK peace negotiations, yet no formal announcement, timeline, or parliamentary vote has materialized. President Erdogan has repeatedly framed the effort as a national priority detached from term-limit considerations, while opposition parties and procedural hurdles continue to constrain progress. Traders therefore assign the 65.5 percent probability to “No” through year-end, reflecting the absence of any decisive legislative trigger or coalition expansion capable of meeting constitutional thresholds by December 31, 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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