Russian forces have intensified ground operations and infiltration attempts toward Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of their broader eastern front offensive, recently securing positions in nearby Novodmytrivka and closing to within roughly one kilometer of the city’s southern outskirts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported ongoing counter-sabotage measures and successful repels of Russian efforts to establish footholds inside the city limits, while battlefield mapping indicates interspersed positions that complicate rapid advances. These developments reflect Russia’s tactical push to encircle or isolate the stronghold within the so-called fortress belt, yet Ukrainian forces continue to hold key defensive lines amid heavy drone and artillery exchanges. The pace of incremental Russian gains amid high attrition costs shapes trader assessments of whether full capture can occur before any specified resolution deadline, with upcoming seasonal offensive cycles and Ukrainian reinforcement patterns remaining key variables.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$322,294 거래량
6월 30일
3%
12월 31일
33%
$322,294 거래량
6월 30일
3%
12월 31일
33%
Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
마켓 개설일: Feb 19, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have intensified ground operations and infiltration attempts toward Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of their broader eastern front offensive, recently securing positions in nearby Novodmytrivka and closing to within roughly one kilometer of the city’s southern outskirts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported ongoing counter-sabotage measures and successful repels of Russian efforts to establish footholds inside the city limits, while battlefield mapping indicates interspersed positions that complicate rapid advances. These developments reflect Russia’s tactical push to encircle or isolate the stronghold within the so-called fortress belt, yet Ukrainian forces continue to hold key defensive lines amid heavy drone and artillery exchanges. The pace of incremental Russian gains amid high attrition costs shapes trader assessments of whether full capture can occur before any specified resolution deadline, with upcoming seasonal offensive cycles and Ukrainian reinforcement patterns remaining key variables.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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