US officials, including anonymous sources cited in recent Associated Press reporting, have reiterated no imminent military action against Cuba despite President Trump's repeated threats labeling the island "next," driving trader consensus to price "No" at 76.5% for a 2026 invasion. Surging US spy flights and new sanctions targeting Cuba's military regime and elites, announced in early May, reflect intensified economic pressure and diplomatic posturing rather than invasion preparations, with Pentagon planning described as routine contingencies absent any troop buildup. Cuba's defiant responses and international calls for de-escalation, alongside the absence of a clear casus belli or congressional authorization beyond blocked war powers limits, underscore significant barriers, though rhetoric could shift odds if escalation signals emerge before year-end.