As of late September 2026, the closely matched odds around 50% for numerous AI labs in the race for third place reflect a fragmented competitive landscape where no single contender has pulled ahead on key benchmarks for large language model capabilities. Established players like Meta and Google trade lower at 41% and 37% implied probability, while OpenAI's slim 7.5% chance signals trader consensus that it has already locked in a top-two position. Recent model releases emphasizing features such as style control, combined with ongoing developer ecosystem growth and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, keep the field fluid. Upcoming earnings calls and capability demonstrations in the next month could quickly reshape these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
Meta 41%
Google 37%
Alibaba 8%
OpenAI 7.3%
$42,667 Wol.
$42,667 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
41%
37%
Alibaba
8%
OpenAI
7%
Anthropic
6%
Moonshot
5%
Mistral
5%
Z.ai
4%
Baidu
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta 41%
Google 37%
Alibaba 8%
OpenAI 7.3%
$42,667 Wol.
$42,667 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$7,155 Wol.
41%
$18,041 Wol.
37%
Alibaba
$5,387 Wol.
8%
OpenAI
$4,722 Wol.
7%
Anthropic
$614 Wol.
6%
Moonshot
$469 Wol.
5%
Mistral
$437 Wol.
5%
Z.ai
$345 Wol.
4%
Baidu
$345 Wol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$326 Wol.
3%
DeepSeek
$324 Wol.
1%
ByteDance
$522 Wol.
1%
Tencent
$427 Wol.
1%
Xiaomi
$541 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$440 Wol.
1%
Nvidia
$392 Wol.
1%
Microsoft
$377 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$562 Wol.
1%
StepFun
$392 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$409 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$440 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".As of late September 2026, the closely matched odds around 50% for numerous AI labs in the race for third place reflect a fragmented competitive landscape where no single contender has pulled ahead on key benchmarks for large language model capabilities. Established players like Meta and Google trade lower at 41% and 37% implied probability, while OpenAI's slim 7.5% chance signals trader consensus that it has already locked in a top-two position. Recent model releases emphasizing features such as style control, combined with ongoing developer ecosystem growth and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, keep the field fluid. Upcoming earnings calls and capability demonstrations in the next month could quickly reshape these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$42,667Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".As of late September 2026, the closely matched odds around 50% for numerous AI labs in the race for third place reflect a fragmented competitive landscape where no single contender has pulled ahead on key benchmarks for large language model capabilities. Established players like Meta and Google trade lower at 41% and 37% implied probability, while OpenAI's slim 7.5% chance signals trader consensus that it has already locked in a top-two position. Recent model releases emphasizing features such as style control, combined with ongoing developer ecosystem growth and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, keep the field fluid. Upcoming earnings calls and capability demonstrations in the next month could quickly reshape these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$42,667Data zakończenia
Oct 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...As of late September 2026, the closely matched odds around 50% for numerous AI labs in the race for third place reflect a fragmented competitive landscape where no single contender has pulled ahead on key benchmarks for large language model capabilities. Established players like Meta and Google trade lower at 41% and 37% implied probability, while OpenAI's slim 7.5% chance signals trader consensus that it has already locked in a top-two position. Recent model releases emphasizing features such as style control, combined with ongoing developer ecosystem growth and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, keep the field fluid. Upcoming earnings calls and capability demonstrations in the next month could quickly reshape these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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