Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Google 75%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 2.6%
Moonshot 1.7%
$110,115 Wol.
$110,115 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
75%
Meta
19%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 75%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 2.6%
Moonshot 1.7%
$110,115 Wol.
$110,115 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
$19,853 Wol.
75%
Meta
$27,808 Wol.
19%
OpenAI
$4,802 Wol.
3%
Moonshot
$3,604 Wol.
2%
Alibaba
$9,756 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,418 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,925 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$1,975 Wol.
1%
Anthropic
$21,137 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,312 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,672 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,856 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$110,115Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$110,115Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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