Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 and 1.2 releases have driven its 75% implied probability as the third-best AI lab by end-September, placing it behind only Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on Artificial Analysis and BenchLM leaderboards. These models deliver near-frontier scores around 70 on key benchmarks with strong agentic and coding performance, supported by Meta's open-weights ecosystem and new personal agent features. Google trails at 17% despite Gemini 3.8 Flash's efficiency gains and broad distribution, as its intelligence metrics lag the top tier. Other labs show limited movement in verified September updates, leaving trader consensus focused on Meta's momentum in the current snapshot.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoThird-best AI Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Lab end of September?
Meta 75.4%
Google 16%
Moonshot 3.0%
Alibaba 2.7%
$87,520 Wol.
$87,520 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
75%
16%
Moonshot
3%
Alibaba
3%
Z.ai
3%
OpenAI
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 75.4%
Google 16%
Moonshot 3.0%
Alibaba 2.7%
$87,520 Wol.
$87,520 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$11,803 Wol.
75%
$38,395 Wol.
16%
Moonshot
$3,005 Wol.
3%
Alibaba
$9,327 Wol.
3%
Z.ai
$2,238 Wol.
3%
OpenAI
$5,003 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$1,903 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,183 Wol.
1%
Anthropic
$1,931 Wol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,165 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,085 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$714 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 and 1.2 releases have driven its 75% implied probability as the third-best AI lab by end-September, placing it behind only Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on Artificial Analysis and BenchLM leaderboards. These models deliver near-frontier scores around 70 on key benchmarks with strong agentic and coding performance, supported by Meta's open-weights ecosystem and new personal agent features. Google trails at 17% despite Gemini 3.8 Flash's efficiency gains and broad distribution, as its intelligence metrics lag the top tier. Other labs show limited movement in verified September updates, leaving trader consensus focused on Meta's momentum in the current snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$87,520Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 and 1.2 releases have driven its 75% implied probability as the third-best AI lab by end-September, placing it behind only Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on Artificial Analysis and BenchLM leaderboards. These models deliver near-frontier scores around 70 on key benchmarks with strong agentic and coding performance, supported by Meta's open-weights ecosystem and new personal agent features. Google trails at 17% despite Gemini 3.8 Flash's efficiency gains and broad distribution, as its intelligence metrics lag the top tier. Other labs show limited movement in verified September updates, leaving trader consensus focused on Meta's momentum in the current snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$87,520Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 and 1.2 releases have driven its 75% implied probability as the third-best AI lab by end-September, placing it behind only Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra on Artificial Analysis and BenchLM leaderboards. These models deliver near-frontier scores around 70 on key benchmarks with strong agentic and coding performance, supported by Meta's open-weights ecosystem and new personal agent features. Google trails at 17% despite Gemini 3.8 Flash's efficiency gains and broad distribution, as its intelligence metrics lag the top tier. Other labs show limited movement in verified September updates, leaving trader consensus focused on Meta's momentum in the current snapshot.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania